From TheTyee.ca - May 3, 2011

by Tyee Staff & Contributors

HURRAY! TO THE LIFEBOATS!
Colleen Kimmett

"It's like winning bingo on the Titanic," said my fellow election viewer Mitch Anderson, referring to Elizabeth May's win and Jack Layton's minority in the wake of a Harper majority this evening.

Watching the election results roll in with a handful of others in Anderson's apartment in East Vancouver felt indeed like a historic event, even Titanic in the realm of Canadian politics. The Bloc Quebecois is virtually dissolved, its leader resigned, and the Liberal party is, as Peter Mansbridge put it, "near destruction."

What it signifies for the future of Canada is less certain. While some in the room tried to look on the bright side -- this election is a historic first for both the New Democratic and Green parties -- other were worried that, like the fated ship, their Canada is sinking into a deep, dark place. Especially the artists, women and homosexuals.

Jack Layton has a big job ahead of him, but I think he could unite progressives in this country to defeat the Conservatives in the next election. Working with his new Quebecois cabinet will be a challenge, but perhaps the bigger challenge will be breaking through to those who don't identify with either French or English speaking Canada. A victorious Conservative MP Jason Kenney told the CBC's Terry Milewski that internal party polling showed the new Canadian vote, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, was a hugely important to the Conservatives' win.

I am an optimist. When there is a growing chorus for change there will be equal push for things to remain constant. I predict the next four years will be a polarizing, but interesting period in Canadian politics.

Colleen Kimmett writes about food and environment for The Tyee and others.

HARPER CAN REALLY DO THE SPLITS
Charles Campbell

The biggest loser this election night is not Michael Ignatieff or his Liberal party. It is the Canadian electorate. As British Columbians should know rather well, the biggest determinant in the outcome of many Canadian elections is which side of the political spectrum splits its vote. In all but one of the last six elections, the Conservative or Reform/Conservative vote has fallen within two points of 38 per cent. The only true majority tonight is the 60 per cent of Canadians who didn't get a government they supported at the ballot box.

What happened to make this so? Of course it began with that loveless marriage eight years ago of the two parties to the right. Quebec yet again revealed its uncanny ability to vote with one collective mind. Prime Minister Stephen Harper showed remarkable skill in framing issues his way. The Liberals received the final payback for decades of arrogance and, as Jack Layton so resonantly put it during the English debate, sense of entitlement. Finally, the difference in tone of the NDP and Liberal campaign ads revealed that Canadians are more easily swayed by comedy than scare tactics.

And while the prognosticators and heir apparent Bob Rae try and sort out the Liberals' future, the rest of us can now go home for four whole years, thankful we don't have to face an election we don't want. Right?

Charles Campbell is a Tyee contributing editor.

WE MAY RUE THE BLOC COLLAPSE
Rafe Mair

There are a great many enormous questions to be asked and answered. It would be foolish to think that Quebec separatism has ended and indeed I would argue that the extent of the BQ loss was bad news. While they were in Ottawa in some numbers, separatism could be handled by dealing with the BQ across the floor. Now it is leaderless even though their twin, the PQ, seems poised to win Quebec provincially. It is as I said in a speech some years ago: "If there were not a Bloc Quebecois we would have to invent one."

 Separatism will be different in Quebec. Although Stephen Harper has representation, sovereignists will be looking at Jack Layton to express their ambitions and he won't do so. Prime Minister Harper will use the public purse as best he can as is traditional, but I foresee a great deal of ferment ahead.

Separatism has always been a political force in Quebec and, like poison ivy, its venom waxes and wanes with the moment. The target of the next incarnation of separatism will be what Jacques inelegantly called the "ethnics." This has been going on but the pressure will increase once the Bloc and PQ sort out, in a blood bath, who will lead what and where. They can count and know that separation needs these "ethnics."

British Columbia will be an interesting study. I think many British Columbians, much like Albertans, have shrunk from voting NDP because they were seen as a party of labour leaders, professors and what my father would call "parlor pinks." Layton, now at least officially leading the "government in waiting," has the opportunity to gain for the NDP the traditional slightly leftish voter who once voted Liberal or Red Tory.

Former Socred minister Rafe Mair's column runs every other Monday in The Tyee.

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